Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 November 2019

By SpaceRef Editor
November 3, 2019
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 Nov, 05 Nov, 06 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 808 km/s at 03/0649Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 03/0650Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 02/2129Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2934 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (04 Nov), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (05 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (06 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Nov 069
Predicted 04 Nov-06 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 03 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov 006/005-008/008-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/25
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 15/25/30
Major-severe storm 10/25/30

SpaceRef staff editor.