Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 November 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 Nov, 05 Nov, 06 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 450 km/s at 03/0526Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 03/0240Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 02/2206Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (04 Nov, 06 Nov) and quiet levels on day two (05 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Nov 073
Predicted   04 Nov-06 Nov 073/073/073
90 Day Mean        03 Nov 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov  012/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov  007/008-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/15/20