Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 November 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
November 3, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 03/1909Z from Region 2443 (N06E03). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (04 Nov) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 760 km/s at 03/1907Z. Total IMF reached 36 nT at 03/0659Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -24 nT at 03/0620Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (04 Nov) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
Class M 50/45/40
Class X 10/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Nov 124
Predicted 04 Nov-06 Nov 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 03 Nov 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov 025/040
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov 016/021-010/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/25
Minor Storm 40/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 70/35/30

SpaceRef staff editor.