Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 November 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to

03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24

hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at

03/1153Z from the northeast limb. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot

regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with

a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Nov, 05 Nov,

06 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic

field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar

wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached 515 km/s at

02/2137Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02/2142Z. The maximum southward

component of Bz reached -3 nT at 03/0138Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV

at geosynchronous orbit briefly reached a peak level of 10 pfu at

02/2110Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a

peak level of 386 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected

to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (04 Nov, 06

Nov) and quiet to active levels on day two (05 Nov). Protons greater

than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (04

Nov) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (05 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov

Class M    25/25/25

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     20/10/05

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           03 Nov 125

Predicted   04 Nov-06 Nov 130/125/125

90 Day Mean        03 Nov 140

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov  006/006

Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov  007/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov  007/010-009/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                25/30/20

Minor Storm           05/10/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           30/30/30

Major-severe storm    30/40/30