Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 May 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 03/1325Z from Region 3004 (S15W02). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 May, 05 May, 06 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 625 km/s at 02/2242Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02/2249Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 03/1933Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2317 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (04 May, 05 May, 06 May).

III. Event probabilities 04 May-06 May
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 25/25/25
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 May 114
Predicted 04 May-06 May 115/120/125
90 Day Mean 03 May 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 005/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10