Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 May 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 503 km/s at 03/1635Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at03/0502Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 03/0914Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 231 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (05 May, 06 May).

III. Event probabilities 04 May-06 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 May 072
Predicted 04 May-06 May 072/074/076
90 Day Mean 03 May 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May 012/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 009/010-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/10
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 40/20/10