Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 May 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 May, 05 May, 06 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 512 km/s at 02/2130Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 03/1953Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 03/1759Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6155 pfu

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (04 May, 05 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (06 May).

III.  Event probabilities 04 May-06 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 May 070
Predicted   04 May-06 May 074/076/076
90 Day Mean        03 May 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May  013/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May  005/005-006/005-006/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    10/10/25