Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 May 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 May, 05 May, 06 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 502 km/s at 03/1421Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 03/0128Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 03/1928Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 621 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (04 May, 05 May) and quiet to
minor storm levels on day three (06 May).

III.  Event probabilities 04 May-06 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 May 067
Predicted   04 May-06 May 067/067/068
90 Day Mean        03 May 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May  006/005-006/005-017/022

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/40
Minor Storm           01/01/30
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/55