Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 May 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 May, 05 May, 06 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 502 km/s at 03/1421Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 03/0128Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 03/1928Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 621 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (04 May, 05 May) and quiet to
minor storm levels on day three (06 May).
III. Event probabilities 04 May-06 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 May 067
Predicted 04 May-06 May 067/067/068
90 Day Mean 03 May 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 006/005-006/005-017/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/40
Minor Storm 01/01/30
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 15/15/25
Major-severe storm 15/15/55