Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 May 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 May, 05 May, 06 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 444 km/s at 03/0004Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7831 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (05 May, 06 May).

III.  Event probabilities 04 May-06 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 May 075
Predicted   04 May-06 May 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        03 May 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May  011/012-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/15
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    40/20/20