Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 May 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (04 May) and likely to be low on days two and three (05 May, 06 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 636 km/s at 03/0618Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 02/2110Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 02/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4006 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (04 May, 05 May, 06 May).

III. Event probabilities 04 May-06 May
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 May 090
Predicted 04 May-06 May 095/105/110
90 Day Mean 03 May 096

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May 026/031
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10