Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 May 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
03/0608Z from Region 2051 (S09W50). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (04 May, 05 May, 06 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
361 km/s at 03/1856Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 03/1842Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 03/1944Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 104 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 May), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (05 May) and quiet levels on day three (06 May).

III. Event probabilities 04 May-06 May
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 May 133
Predicted 04 May-06 May 135/140/140
90 Day Mean 03 May 153

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 009/008-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 35/25/15
Major-severe storm 35/20/05