Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 May 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
03/1732Z from Region 1739 (N13E75). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(04 May, 05 May, 06 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 482 km/s at
02/2141Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1905 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (04 May, 06
May) and quiet to active levels on day two (05 May). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (04 May,
05 May, 06 May).

III. Event probabilities 04 May-06 May
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 May 148
Predicted 04 May-06 May 155/155/150
90 Day Mean 03 May 115

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May 011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 008/008-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/10
Minor Storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 10/25/10