Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 March 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 62 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 03/0003Z from Region 2807 (S18E29). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Mar, 05 Mar, 06 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 692 km/s at 03/0350Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 02/2227Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 03/0011Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4797 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (04 Mar, 05 Mar) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (06 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Mar 074
Predicted 04 Mar-06 Mar 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 03 Mar 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar 014/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Mar 017/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar 008/010-007/010-018/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/40
Minor Storm 10/10/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/40/65