Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 March 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 62 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 Mar, 05 Mar, 06 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 347 km/s at 02/2127Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 03/2036Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 03/0904Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1459 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Mar) and quiet levels on days two and three (05 Mar, 06 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Mar 068
Predicted   04 Mar-06 Mar 070/072/072
90 Day Mean        03 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Mar  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    20/15/10