Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 March 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 62 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Mar, 05 Mar, 06 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 762 km/s at 03/1122Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 03/1843Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 03/0726Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22830 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (04 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (05 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (06 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Mar 078
Predicted   04 Mar-06 Mar 077/076/076
90 Day Mean        03 Mar 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar  023/029
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Mar  019/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar  017/020-010/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/15/10
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    45/20/10