Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 March 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 63 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Mar, 05 Mar, 06 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 497 km/s at 03/0252Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 02/2146Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 03/0658Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 167 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (04 Mar, 05 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (06 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Mar 099
Predicted 04 Mar-06 Mar 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 03 Mar 107

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar 007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Mar 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar 010/012-013/015-017/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/40
Minor Storm 05/10/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 35/40/50