Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 June 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Jun, 05 Jun, 06 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 377 km/s at 02/2158Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9724 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (04 Jun) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (05 Jun, 06 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jun 101
Predicted 04 Jun-06 Jun 100/100/098
90 Day Mean 03 Jun 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun 006/005-010/012-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/35/30
Minor Storm 01/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 15/30/30
Major-severe storm 10/45/40