Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 June 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 03/1456Z from Region 2661 (N06E39). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Jun, 05 Jun, 06 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 509 km/s at 03/1916Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 03/1126Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 03/1128Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 601 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (04 Jun) and quiet levels on days two and three (05 Jun, 06 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jun 078
Predicted   04 Jun-06 Jun 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        03 Jun 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun  011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun  012/015-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/10/10
Minor Storm           20/01/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/20/10