Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 June 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Jun, 05 Jun, 06 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 358 km/s at 03/2015Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1288 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on days one and two (04 Jun, 05 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (06 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jun 083
Predicted 04 Jun-06 Jun 082/080/080
90 Day Mean 03 Jun 092

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun 005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun 024/035-021/032-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor Storm 35/30/15
Major-severe storm 20/15/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 20/25/30
Major-severe storm 70/70/40