Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 June 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1 event observed at
03/0409Z from Region 2077 (S08E17). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Jun,
05 Jun, 06 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
380 km/s at 03/1702Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 03/1824Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 02/2233Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (04 Jun, 06
Jun) and quiet levels on day two (05 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jun 107
Predicted 04 Jun-06 Jun 105/105/110
90 Day Mean 03 Jun 139

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun 008/008-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor Storm 30/15/25
Major-severe storm 20/05/15