Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 July 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Jul, 05 Jul, 06 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 348 km/s at 03/1052Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 03/1308Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 03/1656Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 167 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (04 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (05 Jul) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (06 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jul 102
Predicted 04 Jul-06 Jul 110/112/112
90 Day Mean 03 Jul 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul 017/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jul 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul 005/005-007/008-017/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/40
Minor Storm 01/10/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 10/40/65