Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 July 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 Jul, 05 Jul, 06 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 337 km/s at 02/2156Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/1221Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 03/0720Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 201 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (04 Jul, 05 Jul, 06 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jul 069
Predicted 04 Jul-06 Jul 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 03 Jul 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jul 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul 006/005-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/10
Minor Storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 10/20/10