Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 July 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 Jul, 05 Jul, 06 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 395 km/s at 03/1648Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 03/1035Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 03/1526Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (04 Jul, 06 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day two (05 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jul 067
Predicted 04 Jul-06 Jul 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 03 Jul 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jul 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul 007/008-013/018-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/35/25
Minor Storm 05/20/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/10/20
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 20/50/30