Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 July 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 Jul, 05 Jul, 06 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 343 km/s at 03/1615Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 03/1641Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 03/1432Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4443 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (04 Jul, 05 Jul, 06 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jul 068
Predicted   04 Jul-06 Jul 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        03 Jul 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul  004/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jul  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/15