Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 July 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 03/1615Z. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 Jul, 05 Jul, 06 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 475 km/s at 02/2132Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 02/2132Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 03/0612Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (04 Jul, 05 Jul, 06 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jul 072
Predicted   04 Jul-06 Jul 073/071/071
90 Day Mean        03 Jul 075

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul  020/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jul  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul  010/011-007/007-007/007

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/20