Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 July 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 03/1251Z from Region 2378 (S17E56). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Jul, 05 Jul, 06 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 386 km/s at 03/0251Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5791 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Jul), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (05 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (06 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul

Class M    10/10/10

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           03 Jul 112

Predicted   04 Jul-06 Jul 112/112/115

90 Day Mean        03 Jul 124

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul  004/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jul  004/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul  007/008-020/030-016/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                25/35/30

Minor Storm           05/25/15

Major-severe storm    01/05/05

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/10/15

Minor Storm           30/25/30

Major-severe storm    30/55/50