Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 July 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
03/0359Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(04 Jul, 05 Jul, 06 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
392 km/s at 03/0450Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 03/0235Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 03/0457Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (04 Jul, 05 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (06 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jul 178
Predicted 04 Jul-06 Jul 180/185/185
90 Day Mean 03 Jul 132

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jul 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul 006/005-006/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/20