Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 July 2013

By SpaceRef Editor
July 3, 2013
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
03/0708Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Jul, 05 Jul,
06 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 428 km/s at
02/2215Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4867 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Jul), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (05 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day
three (06 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jul 125
Predicted 04 Jul-06 Jul 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 03 Jul 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jul 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul 007/008-016/020-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/40/25
Minor Storm 05/20/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/60/40

SpaceRef staff editor.