Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 January 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 3 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan, 06 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 344 km/s at 02/2155Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 660 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (04 Jan, 06 Jan) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (05 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jan 073
Predicted 04 Jan-06 Jan 072/072/070
90 Day Mean 03 Jan 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 012/015-018/024-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/35/40
Minor Storm 10/25/20
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 30/20/25
Major-severe storm 40/65/60