Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 January 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 3 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan, 06 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 419 km/s at 02/2143Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/0754Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 03/0724Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan, 06 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jan 071
Predicted   04 Jan-06 Jan 071/070/070
90 Day Mean        03 Jan 073

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan  006/005-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    15/10/10