Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 January 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 3 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan, 06 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 539 km/s at 03/1531Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 03/0708Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 03/0826Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 179 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (04 Jan, 05 Jan) and unsettled to active levels on day three (06 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jan 073
Predicted   04 Jan-06 Jan 073/072/071
90 Day Mean        03 Jan 079

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan  021/030-022/028-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    60/65/50