- Status Report
- Feb 6, 2023
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 January 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 3 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan, 06 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 539 km/s at 03/1531Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 03/0708Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 03/0826Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 179 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (04 Jan, 05 Jan) and unsettled to active levels on day three (06 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jan 073
Predicted 04 Jan-06 Jan 073/072/071
90 Day Mean 03 Jan 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan 010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 021/030-022/028-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 10/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 60/65/50