Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 January 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 3 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan, 06 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 533 km/s at 03/0524Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 03/0304Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 03/0429Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 02/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6782 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (05 Jan) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (06 Jan). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (04 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 15/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jan 102
Predicted 04 Jan-06 Jan 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 03 Jan 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan 011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 013/015-008/008-013/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/40
Minor Storm 10/05/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 40/25/60