Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 January 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 3 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
02/2218Z from Region 1944 (S08E64). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Jan, 05
Jan, 06 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
655 km/s at 02/2138Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/2024Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 03/1452Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 990 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan, 06 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
Class M 75/75/75
Class X 30/30/30
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jan 182
Predicted 04 Jan-06 Jan 185/185/190
90 Day Mean 03 Jan 146

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan 015/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/05/05