Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 February 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 34 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 03/1117Z from Region 2936 (N17W62). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 576 km/s at 03/1319Z. Total IMF reached 19 nT at 03/0933Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -18 nT at 03/0853Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 370 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Feb), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (05 Feb) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (06 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Feb 127
Predicted 04 Feb-06 Feb 128/130/125
90 Day Mean 03 Feb 099

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb 026/034
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb 011/012-016/020-012/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/40
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 05/10/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 55/65/65