Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 February 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 34 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 417 km/s at 03/1547Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/0151Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 02/2135Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 315 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (04 Feb, 05 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (06 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Feb 072
Predicted 04 Feb-06 Feb 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 03 Feb 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb 005/005-005/005-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/30
Minor Storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 10/10/40