Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 February 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 34 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 335 km/s at 03/0613Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (05 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (06 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Feb 069
Predicted   04 Feb-06 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        03 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb  008/010-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/05
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    30/25/15