Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 February 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 34 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 711 km/s at 03/0245Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 02/2240Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 03/0553Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 20372 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Feb), unsettled levels on day two (05 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (06 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Feb 075
Predicted   04 Feb-06 Feb 074/074/074
90 Day Mean        03 Feb 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb  018/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb  015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb  013/014-011/012-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/15
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           35/30/25
Major-severe storm    35/25/20