Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 February 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 34 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 03/1524Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days one, two, and three (04 Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 439 km/s at 03/2052Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 03/1606Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 03/0028Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (05 Feb, 06 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Feb 112
Predicted 04 Feb-06 Feb 120/120/115
90 Day Mean 03 Feb 108

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb 010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb 008/008-006/005-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 30/20/15
Major-severe storm 25/15/10