Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 34 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 03/1053Z from Region 2277 (N09W06). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day one (04 Feb) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (05 Feb, 06 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 725 km/s at 03/0013Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 02/2354Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 02/2308Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3146 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (04 Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
Class M 30/20/20
Class X 05/01/01
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Feb 149
Predicted 04 Feb-06 Feb 145/140/140
90 Day Mean 03 Feb 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb 017/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb 015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb 010/012-007/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
