Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 February 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 34 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
03/0610Z from Region 1667 (N22E42). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low
levels with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (04
Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 491 km/s at
02/2104Z. Total IMF reached 7.5 nT at 03/1445Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -2.6 nT at 03/1303Z. Electrons greater than 2
MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 388 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (04 Feb, 05
Feb, 06 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Feb 111
Predicted 04 Feb-06 Feb 115/115/120
90 Day Mean 03 Feb 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb 009/012-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/10
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/15
Major-severe storm 35/15/10