Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 December 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Dec, 05 Dec, 06 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 502 km/s at 02/2100Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 03/1440Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 03/1647Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4873 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (04 Dec, 05 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (06 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Dec 085
Predicted 04 Dec-06 Dec 084/082/082
90 Day Mean 03 Dec 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 012/015-009/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/20
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/40/30