Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 December 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 Dec, 05 Dec, 06 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 364 km/s at 03/0628Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 216 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (04 Dec, 05 Dec, 06 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Dec 071
Predicted 04 Dec-06 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 03 Dec 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10