Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 December 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 Dec, 05 Dec, 06 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 507 km/s at 03/1316Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 03/1440Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 03/1444Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Dec), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (05 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (06 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Dec 068
Predicted   04 Dec-06 Dec 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        03 Dec 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec  009/012-015/020-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/25
Minor Storm           10/20/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    40/45/25