Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 December 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Dec, 05 Dec, 06 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 323 km/s at 03/1357Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6638 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (04 Dec, 05 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (06 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Dec 085
Predicted 04 Dec-06 Dec 085/080/080
90 Day Mean 03 Dec 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 008/010-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/15/10