Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 December 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
03/1455Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Dec, 05 Dec,
06 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
444 km/s at 03/0839Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 03/0326Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 03/1328Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (04 Dec, 05 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (06 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Dec 136
Predicted 04 Dec-06 Dec 135/140/145
90 Day Mean 03 Dec 129

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 006/005-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/20