Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 August 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 Aug, 05 Aug, 06 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 722 km/s at 03/1612Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 02/2203Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 03/0208Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 169 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (04 Aug, 05 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (06 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Aug 073
Predicted 04 Aug-06 Aug 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 03 Aug 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug 011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 009/010-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 30/25/10