Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 August 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 Aug, 05 Aug, 06 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 408 km/s at 03/0107Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Aug), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (05 Aug) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (06 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Aug 066
Predicted 04 Aug-06 Aug 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 03 Aug 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 011/012-018/025-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/35/30
Minor Storm 05/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/55/45