Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 August 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Aug, 05 Aug, 06 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 431 km/s at 03/2031Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 03/2035Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 03/2035Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3705 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (04 Aug), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (05 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (06 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Aug 075
Predicted   04 Aug-06 Aug 077/077/077
90 Day Mean        03 Aug 075

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug  008/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug  006/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug  017/025-018/025-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor Storm           35/25/10
Major-severe storm    20/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           15/25/30
Major-severe storm    80/65/40