Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 August 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on day one (04 Aug) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (05 Aug, 06 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 599 km/s at 03/1340Z. Total IMF reached 25 nT at 03/0131Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -20 nT at 03/0347Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 201 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (04 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (05 Aug, 06 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Aug 075
Predicted 04 Aug-06 Aug 075/080/080
90 Day Mean 03 Aug 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug 017/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug 028/035
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 012/015-013/015-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/20
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 35/35/30
Major-severe storm 40/40/25